Twenty Years of Waves

Over the last 20 years after the 1999 higher education expansion, the total number of higher education enrolments has increased sharply. With a higher probability of receiving tertiary education, multiple social and demographic groups are benefiting from the 1999 reform and subsequent college premiums in the job market. However, the impact of the 1999 expansion on income inequality and mobility between these groups is still yet to be examined. Using the Chinese General Social Survey (2021) cross-sectional data and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD), we found that the 1999 higher education expansion encouraged social mobility and educational equality in China where both composition and equalization effects exist. College premium has significantly dropped after the reform but is still a substantial factor when determining wages. With a higher probability of attending universities, citizens from minority ethnic groups and from rural areas generally benefited from the 1999 reform. However, despite the rises of female education levels, the gender wage gap continues to widen after 1999 reform due to systematic discrimination against female workers on the job market. And nevertheless, family background has an unignorable role in determining education levels and a significant impact on future income.