The Shaky Ladder

1999 Higher Education Expansion and Political Opinions in China

Abstract

In recent decades, autocratic regimes have transformed elite higher education systems into public higher education systems. For instance, in 1999, the Chinese government sharply increased total university admissions by nearly 50%. How could the regime maintain political stability while expanding higher education? Several researchers believe that two main factors foster political stability and loyalty to the regime: indoctrination and the upward social mobility effect. In this article, I argue that the 1999 higher education expansion did not promote social mobility in Chinese society, which counteracted the positive indoctrination effect on support for the Chinese government. By applying a difference-in-difference design, I examined the effect of the 1999 higher education expansion on public support for the government, individual income levels, social status, and opinions on corruption and inequality. The results show that the education expansion failed to enhance loyalty to the authoritarian regime. Following the university expansion, the total income of individuals affected by the education reform did not increase. The significant disparity between expected and actual social status resulted in negative judgments about social mobility and equality in Chinese society. Furthermore, as corruption and social inequality have become crucial issues raising public awareness, the 1999 reform did not influence public opinions on these matters. These factors led to an overall null effect of the 1999 education expansion on public opinion in China.

Keywords

Political Economy, Inequality, Higher Education, Education Expansion, Political Ideology, Public Opinion

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